This is not an endorsement of a particular candidate
or party in the U.S. presidential election. It is my attempt, as succinctly as
possible, to identify what I think is at stake in 2016, why this election year
is unusual, and what voters should carefully
consider—if you have the privilege yet to vote. (Everyone on earth will be
affected by the results of this election, but only U.S. citizens will decide
it.)
Nothing that has so far happened in two atypical
states—the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries—means that Donald
Trump or Ted Cruz will get the Republican nomination, or that Bernie Sanders
will be nominated by the Democrats. Their early success, though, has gotten a
lot of people wondering what’s going on with the American voter. The people who
are wondering the most are the people who, last year, were confident that a
Bush on the Republican side, and a Clinton on the Democratic side, would sail
to their nominations for a 1990s rematch.
A lot of people thought this. Some of us found it
depressing to think that U.S. politics were so dynastic, even if we thought Jeb
Bush, or Hillary Rodham Clinton, was a good candidate. The people who found it
less depressing were the people who do best out of the current economic system
and climate. Depending on your point of view, those people are sometimes called
the establishment, the top 1%, or the millionaire/billionaire “class.”
It is not in dispute that the economic gulf between
that group of people, and everyone else, has widened vastly in the U.S. (and in
other rich/Western countries, which are experiencing the same kinds of
polarization I’m talking about here). Even The Wall Street Journal has acknowledged that capitalism has let everyone down, including Republicans.
Those of us who remember Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 know that “The
economy, stupid” was and is the decisive truth about American elections. Here, in
the shortest history possible, is why that matters so much this year:
In the 1990s the economy was going up and up and up.
Pointing to figures throughout the twentieth century, our elders (I was young
then) told us that we would be successful if we put our money in the U.S. stock
market, which could reasonably be expected to deliver 8% or more annual returns
and, someday, a comfortable retirement. We didn’t need public pensions or
defined-benefit plans anymore, because the market would take care of everything
so much better (some politicians even wanted Social Security invested there). Times
seemed good. The Soviet Union was gone, and what was now Russia didn’t seem
like much of a threat. The most salient thing about President Clinton’s
scandals and impeachment, now that I look back on it, is that America had
nothing else to worry about. (Of course, life was not as good for people of color
or LGBT people, but then it never had been. Our expectations were lower to
begin with.)
About the time I left the United States, in 2000,
the high-tech bubble burst and the market stopped delivering. New products that
no one really understood, such as mortgage-backed securities, started being
sold as the latest wave of things we should invest in. The housing market
crashed in 2008, and big banks started being bailed out. This was less of a
problem in some rich/Western countries, like Canada which has strong banking
regulations, than others, but the effects were global. Then the Citizens United decision at the U.S.
Supreme Court in effect enabled corporations to buy elections by claiming to be
people (again, see The Wall Street Journal).
Eight years later, it isn’t the imagination of most
Americans that they have been let down by a system that hugely benefits that
very small group of privileged people. It isn’t only people on the left who
think so. It is obviously true. Ask anyone in the American communities whose houses
lost value or who even lost their homes in the crisis. Ask today’s graduates if
they ever remember a time when the neoliberal/neoconservative economic
consensus—Reaganomics—served them well.
Throughout the rich/Western world, people my age,
let alone younger, know that without some stroke of individual luck, we are not
going to achieve retirement at all,
at least not as a previous generation envisioned it. If we’re lucky enough to
have defined-contribution pension plans/401(k)s available to us, we can still
take advantage of investing in the stock market, for the sole reason that
returns on any other investment would only be more dismal, if not negative.
(Japan has recently set interest rates on bank deposits into negative territory—you pay for the bank
to have your money. Neat, eh?)
The top people who paid for elections to belong to
them are mystified by figures like Trump and Sanders not just going away, but
if you’re in the 99%, it makes sense. People are angry. They feel let down by a
system that has worked against them since the late 1970s.*
They sense that, while the Clinton and Obama administrations made important
advances in some social areas that Republicans opposed, they didn’t readjust
the economic balance in favor of greater equality. These people, and they
aren’t just young people, want something different and they want their vote to
count.
Of course, Trump and Sanders are advancing very
different ideas about the kind of America they would like to see. One is, from
where I sit in Europe, terrifyingly nationalist, and the other is social
democratic (though Senator Sanders is socialist in the context of the United
States). But both ideas are very different from the America we’ve had my whole
life. Sanders has built his campaign on the idea that the economic consensus is
fundamentally flawed and only (by American standards) radical programs like
single-payer health care, maternity leave, and state-paid-for college can begin
to address the imbalance. He has crossed the previously taboo line in American
politics by stating that in some areas, other countries do better and the U.S.
should learn from them. Lots of Americans still aren’t ready to hear this and recoil from socialism.
Trump, by contrast, is too rich to need anyone’s
contributions and so appears “not bought” in a different way from Sanders.
Trump blames foreign countries for ripping America off (China) or wants to
destroy them with bombing (Syria). He has terrible things to say about
Mexicans, Muslims, and of course women. I’ve already analyzed his appeal
but the fact is, it’s still a populist appeal. President Obama once told some
bankers that it was either him, or the pitchforks. Trump
(and Senator Cruz) are followed by the people with pitchforks, and this time
there is no Obama to stop them.
The conclusion I draw is that it’s no surprise Bush
vs. Clinton isn’t panning out, because this isn’t 1992. Back then, Democrats
only dreamed of getting a little tiny bit of health care, and Bill and Hillary
weren’t even able to deliver that. Now, we’ve got “Obamacare,” same-sex
marriage, and a whole whack of other social change that was undreamed of a
generation ago. We’ve also got tremendous economic inequality, a surge of white
supremacism that always accompanies it, and long-term stagnation in Washington
on issues ranging from immigration to gun violence. The candidate who wins is
going to have to show voters that a different America is possible, because too
many people believe this one isn’t working anymore.
Right nationalists, like Cruz and like Trump is
playing, hold out a vision of that different America being “great again.”
“Great” means like it was in the past—white-dominated, Christian-dominated,
militarily dominant, misogynist, and queer-unfriendly. But it also means like it was in the past in terms of
economics—where working-class people (if America knew how to talk about class)
could get a decent job and their fair share. White working people. That is a
valid economic aspiration, and in U.S. politics, economic aspirations always
trump [sic] other issues.
Senator Sanders offers a vision of left egalitarianism instead.
His policies, which sound unrealistically radical to people who have believed
in Reaganomics for so long, would actually not have been out of place in the L.
B. Johnson era, or even Eisenhower’s. So Sanders is also harking back to something
the past got right, while preserving and even extending the ways in which
women, LGBT Americans, and Americans of color have gained in the decades since.
His potential for magic is in his appeal to white working people who have not
voted Democratic since Ronald Reagan captured them in the last big shakeup of
economic ideology this country had.
That’s a powerful appeal. Candidates won’t do well
by ignoring the crushing problems voters have and warning that any radical
change would be even worse. If I were Secretary Clinton, I would remind voters
that I said it’s time to end “the era
of mass incarceration.” I would remind voters that Senator Elizabeth Warren,
who has done as much as anyone to push Democratic politics in a progressive
direction, praised my Wall Street reform plan.
I would tell voters that I went to
Flint, Michigan, where a poor, largely black community’s drinking water was
poisoned by cheap politicians. I would talk less about preserving the gains of the
Obama era—which sounds like a defensive game, the best we can hope for—and more
about extending them. Not just for one year or four or eight, but for the
decades to come.
Perhaps E. J. Dionne summed it up best. “Now here's why so many Democrats like both of them: Most share Clinton's view that gradual reform is the most practical way forward. But most also agree with Sanders that even moderately progressive steps will be stymied if money's influence is left unchecked, if progressives do not find new ways of organizing and mobilizing, and if so many white working-class voters continue to support Republicans.”
*If you have time
to read this through, it's a thoughtful historical analysis--the best I've
read. It puts this election in a context going back to the 1920s and forward decades, not just a year or four. I
don't share all this author's opinions, but if you haven't heard Coolidge's
name in a while, pull up a chair!
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